Valentine being coy when it comes to lineup

Valentine being coy when it comes to lineup

After MVP-type year, Ellsbury could slide down to three-hole

03/11/12 5:58 PM EST

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SARASOTA, Fla. -- We should read as much into Spring Training lineups as we do into Spring Training results. Which is to say, very little, if anything.

That said, it's at least worth noting that the last two Grapefruit League lineup cards Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine has filled out have had Jacoby Ellsbury in the No. 3 hole.

"Is he there again today?" a smiling Valentine said Sunday, just before the Red Sox roughed up the O's, 6-1, at Ed Smith Stadium. "Wow."

Last year, Ellsbury wowed us from the leadoff spot. He hit 29 home runs and 45 doubles from the leadoff spot. He drove in 97 runs from the leadoff spot. He had a .936 OPS from the leadoff spot -- the highest among No. 1 hitters in the American League.

And when you do those kinds of things from the leadoff spot, it's only natural to assume you've graduated from the leadoff spot. It's only natural to assume it's time to drop down a notch or two to take better advantage of your extra-base abilities.

Which is why Red Sox fans should firmly expect to see a lot more days like Sunday -- days when Ellsbury bats in spots more traditionally prone to the kind of run-production he provided in 2011.

Except, of course, on the days that he doesn't.

And therein lies one of the more interesting subplots of first year of the Bobby V era in Boston. Though the actual combinations Valentine expects to employ are a mystery, he's made it no secret that inconsistency of order could be a consistent element of his batting order construction.

In Valentine's view -- and he's right, for the record -- the game has become too specialized, too strategized, too analyzed to fall for the old assumption that a set and stable lineup leads to set and stable run-production. Why, just Saturday, Ellsbury batted third yet led off two innings. No one's smart enough to predict how the game plays out, so it's the manager's job to look at the day's particular matchups and put his club in what he hopes will be the best position to succeed.

The difficulty, though, is acclimating the players themselves to this idea. Psychology sometimes runs counter to strategy, and the fact is that certain players are comfortable in certain spots.

Can a constantly changing order work, well, constantly?

"I don't know," said Dustin Pedroia, who might well be Valentine's top leadoff candidate should Ellsbury slide down. "We've always had stability, so I don't know. I'm sure we'll figure out where everybody's going to hit eventually."

Pedroia, for his part, has said he's open to the idea of leading off, even though his career numbers take a pretty drastic dip in the No. 1 spot (.253 batting average, .318 on-base percentage and .373 slugging percentage in 354 plate appearances) vs. No. 2 (.311/.381/.472 in 2,122 plate appearances).

Perhaps those numbers are pure coincidence, given the marked difference in sample size, or perhaps they're indicative of that aforementioned psychological element to all this. Some guys simply try to be something they're not when it's their job to set the table, rather than clear it or push it forward.

Carl Crawford is one example. Though he once seemingly profiled as the ideal leadoff hitter, he has said that he never felt comfortable in that spot with the Rays, which is why he became a No. 2 hitter. Then he arrived in Boston last year and batted third -- for just the first two games of the season. Then Terry Francona began a season-long trend of trying Crawford in a variety of spots (including leadoff), all to no avail.

Now, it's altogether possible and perhaps likely that Crawford would have struggled to the tune of a .255 average and .694 OPS regardless of where he hit. Or maybe Francona's constant tweaking of his lineup spot prevented Crawford from getting comfortable. Again, no one's smart enough to really know for sure. But Crawford has said this spring that when he got moved to the bottom third of the order (in the season's third game), he changed his approach at the plate because he felt pressured to improve immediately.

Again, that's the psychological element in all this, and it's something Valentine will have to meet head-on.

The good news? Between Ellsbury, Pedroia, Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis, Valentine can probably pick those six names out of a hat and come up with a productive first two-thirds of the batting order. After all, even with Crawford's monumental struggles at the plate and Youkilis' struggles to stay on the field last season, the Red Sox scored the most runs (875) in all of baseball.

The goal, though, is to maximize that talent to ensure that production comes as a constant and not in bunches.

Crawford complicates this picture in several ways. For one, while we can conceivably expect some improvement over his 2011 effort, no one can say for certain he'll be the electric player he once was with Tampa Bay. Especially given the complications of returning from left wrist surgery -- and his setback in the recovery from that surgery puts his readiness for Opening Day in doubt.

Valentine, then, must concoct in his head two lineups -- one with Crawford and one without. And given what we witnessed last year, neither one should have Crawford in the leadoff spot.

Perhaps Youkilis could handle the leadoff role on occasion. A healthy "Greek God of Walks" certainly has the OBP for the job.

Or maybe Pedroia moves up a notch, though those aforementioned career splits might be deemed troubling.

It could well be that, all power potential aside, the Red Sox's best option at leadoff is the very guy who has been there all along. Ellsbury developed a ton of power last season, but he didn't lose his speed. He can still create, can still set a tone and do so dynamically. And once the lineup turns over, he still has a fair share of RBI opportunities.

But as Valentine notes, the leadoff role might be stifling to a guy coming off an MVP-type season.

"As a hitter, he's a very rare hitter," Valentine said of Ellsbury. "He uses all fields, he walks, he hits with power, has extra-base power in his swing, he runs fast. He's a very unique player. There are not many like him."

Valentine was asked if Ellsbury might improve his on-base percentage this year.

"If he hits in the middle of the order," Valentine said, "he probably will."

That's called a hint. And in absence of games with real meaning and lineups with real consequences, that's all we have to work with right now.

"To me," Ellsbury said, "whatever [Valentine] feels is the best way to get wins [is fine]. We've got so many great hitters on this team that it's a good problem to have."

That's the bottom line in Boston. Somebody get that hat.

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