Turns out no-one saw it coming: Sceptics rebuff controversial experiment that …

By
Eddie Wrenn


PUBLISHED:

13:19 GMT, 15 March 2012

|

UPDATED:

16:51 GMT, 15 March 2012

Seeing the future? Follow-up studies have refuted controversial 2010 'proof' of psychic ability

Seeing the future? Follow-up studies have refuted controversial 2010 'proof' of psychic ability

It was a miraculous experiment that appeared to prove that people do possess psychic ability.

Memory tests carried out by Daryl Bem in 2010 'proved' that we have the ability to predict future by picking out certain words.

But now other scientists have tried to replicate the results - and found nothing.

The Cornell University academic published a paper which claimed subjects shown a list of words could better recall the ones that they would later be shown again - but before they actually knew which words made up the second list.

The apparently rigorous exam seemed to prove that participants could see into the future, and 'pick out' the words that they would soon come across.

The report was published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, and sparked outrage among many psychologists, who could not believe the result.

Now University of Hertfordshire psychologist Richard Wiseman and University of London psychologist Christopher French both conducted the rebuttal experiment using a group of 50 people.

Explaining his scepticism in the original study, Wiseman told LiveScience: 'It's almost as if you study for an exam, you do the exam and then you
study for it afterwards and then you get a better mark.

'So you can see why we were kind of surprised by that.'

'We found nothing. It might just be because the [original] statistics were a fluke.

'You're going to get some false positives sometimes.'

False positive? The jury is still out, but science has not yet found strong evidence to support psychic ability

False positive? The jury is still out, but science has not yet found strong evidence to support psychic ability

In the original study, Bem's participants saw a list of 48 words flashed onto a computer screen, and were then treated to a surprise memory test in which they were asked to type in as many of the words as they remembered.

Then a random sample of 24 of the previous 48 words was presented again, and the participants did some practice exercises with these words.

Analysing the results, Bem found that the students were more likely to recall the words that were about to appear on the later exercise list, implying they could predict the future.

Bem published his research and methods, and encouraged other testers to try to replication of his results. The computer program used in the experiment was placed online.

Following the follow-up studies, Bem said more research was needed, and suggested the experimenters were sceptical, which may have unwittingly influenced the results - athough the computer-based study is designed to alleviate this effect.

Bem said: 'This does not mean that the results are unverifiable by independent investigators, but that we must begin regarding the experimenter as a variable in the experiments that should be included in the research designs.'

Wiseman said the follow-up research did show some insight and issues with current reporting of experiments.

The Journal decided to publish his follow-up studies, and Wiseman said: 'There's a real problem with finding shocking findings and then not being interested in publishing replications.

'It's kicked up a huge debate about how scientists do work and how journals publish that work, and I think that's very valuable in itself - even if I'm not that confident that these findings are real.'

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' Wait! The mists are clearing...all will be revealed... I predict that this story will be at the bottom of the page by tomorrow morning!'- Jonah, Manchester-on-Sea...............................................................................' Wait! The mists are clearing...all will be revealed... I predict that there will be yet another story about Carol Vorderman at the top of the page by tomorrow morning!'

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A real psychic would have know it was fake before they even did the study.

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Bilge

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I'm not a medium but an extra large.

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The problem with these investigations of the paranormal is that they are selective of their data, which is unscientific. For example, remarks like "some of our subjects have demonstrated an above average ability to predict...". Yes, some would - that's what an average is.

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It will never be possibe to prove psychic ability. Most of it comes when needed and not otherwise.Seeing into the future is not possibe unless the future has already taken place, but then there are the other things. Clairevoyance. Cats, and possibly other animals have some measure of psychic ability. Ask any cat guardian whose cat has wanted to comfort them when they're unwell. Silly littlegames with lists are useless. Mice can't read.

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Women are not only psychic some are also witches. I was out for a drive with an old girlfriend and she made a pass at me, and I turned into a layby.

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Why am I seeing lots of AGW researchers coming unstuck in the future, as I read this article?

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"I do believe that we have some kind of psychic ability that stems back to before we could converse when we needed to tell friend from foe. In some it is more developed than others - just a natural gift that we all have
- katieconker, Hornchurch Essex, 15/3/2012 11:48" Loopy. Absolutely loopy. Organisms can communicate without actually conversing. Humans might be the only organism with speech but many, many organisms, from bacteria to plants to animals are capable of communication on some level, generally it is via chemicals, but animals also use visual displays and sounds as well. And it is not psychic.

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" Wait! The mists are clearing...all will be revealed... I predict that this story will be at the bottom of the page by tomorrow morning!"

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