The Liberals’ summer caucus meeting in Alberta, followed by a number of MPs spreading out across 45 western ridings over subsequent days, is as much a psychological tactic to unnerve the Conservatives in their heartland and rally the Liberal base as it is a vote-winning strategy, insiders said.
The Liberals’ annual summer caucus meeting in Edmonton ended last week but most MPs didn’t go far. As an extension of the party’s strategy to drum up support in the western provinces, two-thirds of the Liberal caucus was directed to spread out throughout 45 ridings to meet with community leaders, businesses and interest groups in an effort MPs say is part of Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau’s (Papineau, Que.) intention to win seats in the urban West in 2015, an area they’ve been shut out of for two elections.
“Our leader has indicated that the path to a majority government includes Western Canada,” said Liberal MP Kevin Lamoureux (Winnipeg North, Man.).
While on one hand it’s about winning seats—and the Liberals need a lot of them to reach the 170 required for a majority government in 2015—analysts said there’s more to the western focus.
“The reality is that the Conservatives have votes to burn in Alberta… I think this is more psychological where the Liberals are signaling to the Conservatives, ‘You know what, don’t take Alberta for granted,’” said Nik Nanos, president and CEO of Nanos Research, in an interview with The Hill Times.
“I think this is more tactical than strategic, that perhaps the Liberals want to make sure that the Conservatives expend more resources in Alberta and in the West than they have in the past.”
Scott Reid, CTV political analyst and former senior adviser and director of communications to prime minister Paul Martin, thinks the Liberals’ message goes further than saying to the Conservatives that they’re coming for their base.
“The self image of the party was shaken, and the self confidence of the party was shaken [in 2011],” Mr. Reid said in an interview. “So with Trudeau saying we can compete and win, even in places like Alberta and all across the country and I’m not writing any of you off… it is as much a message to his own people as it is to voters.”
It seems to be working.
“It’s amazing when there’s a game plan presented,” said Liberal aboriginal affairs critic Carolyn Bennett (St. Paul’s Ont.), who said she found the caucus meeting “therapeutic.”
In sticking around Western Canada, in Brandon, Winnipeg, Calgary, Vancouver and parts of Saskatchewan, caucus members had meetings related to their critic roles or portfolios to allow them to better craft their Parliamentary policies based on what Canadians are telling them, said Ms. Bennett.
“A lot of Western Canadians have the sense that Mr. Harper sort of takes them for granted because he thinks he’s got them in his back pocket. It’s a track record of indifference. It’s a track record of just assuming that this government can do anything it wants and it can still count on all of those western votes. Well that’s not so, because there is new, contentious, hardworking competition,” said deputy Liberal leader, Ralph Goodale (Wascana, Sask.) in an interview.
Mr. Lamoureux is holding out hope that recent byelections are an indication of growing support. In 2013, the Liberals had strong showings in two Manitoba byelections: they lost in Brandon-Souris by 391 votes, and their percentage of the vote in Provencher went up to 30 per cent from seven in 2011. In June, the Liberals were edged out by 12 per cent of the vote in the Fort McMurray-Athabasca byelection.
The party has said that six to eight seats in Calgary, Edmonton and Fort McMurray are attainable. But Mr. Lamoureux thinks it’s possible to also increase the number of seats in his home province of Manitoba from one to “between five and two-digits.”
Mr. Lamoureux said it’s been an “ego adjustment” transforming from an MP to a photographer when Mr. Trudeau is in town, because of the swaths of people wanting their picture taken with the Liberal leader. It’s something he said he’d never seen the party experience to that level before.
“The federal Liberals make their bones in those ridings based on the fact that he [Mr. Trudeau] draws bigger crowds now than any leader has for a long time, that they’ve raised more money out of those cities than they have in a long time,” said Mr. Reid.
The intention of the caucus retreat is to prepare for the year ahead, typically discussing Parliamentary plans, but because the Liberals are skeptical that Mr. Harper will stick to the fixed election date of Oct. 19, 2015, the meeting could potentially be the last summer caucus before the next election.
Given this, Ms. Bennett said that when it comes to both Parliamentary policy and election strategy, it’s all about readiness.
“No longer do we work in silos, this is an integrated strategy,” she said. “We can’t be doing things in Parliament that are irrelevant to the goal.”
The first day of the caucus meeting included a town hall-style discussion with the 37 Liberal MPs, a dozen candidates or soon-to-be-named nominees, as well as the Liberal election-readiness committee and the party’s national board.
Mr. Goodale said the main focus of the meeting was to ensure everyone was on the same page and trained on the new systems and get-out-the-vote technology aimed at doing a better job than in past elections at identifying where the Liberal support is.
On the second day the caucus sat in on presentations from four key interest groups that are indicative of what the party’s focus will be moving forward.
“Coming out of caucus, the key priorities will be the middle class and infrastructure. Both will be significant issues going into fall session,” said Mr. Lamoureux.
They heard from the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM), Edmonton Mayor Don Iveson and Regina Mayor Michael Fougere on the needs of infrastructure in urban areas; and from think tanks Canada 2020, the Mowat Centre, and the Canada West Foundation.
As for further details, those hoping for deeply descriptive policy papers will have to wait. Mr. Trudeau has repeatedly indicated that will come closer to the writ being dropped.
Mr. Reid said he expects some “hot stove” issues like assisted suicide will still be brought out well in advance of the campaign period.
“Whether it’s legalization of marijuana, whether it’s prostitution issues, he’s [Mr. Trudeau] not been very gun shy on those things,” Mr. Reid said.
Mr. Nanos suggested rolling out some policy ideas ahead of the government’s next budget being released to divide the media attention and take some focus off the economic announcement, which is expected lay the groundwork for the Tories’ reelection campaign.
“They need a bullet-proof strategy on the economy and they need to give a sense of the depth that they have if they were to potentially form a government,” said Mr. Nanos.
“We should be expecting more of this in terms of where the Liberals think they might be vulnerable.”
However, Mr. Nanos said Mr. Trudeau shouldn’t feel rushed to release anything major yet.
“The numbers don’t suggest that his current strategy is wrong because the numbers are trending in favour of the Liberal Party at this particular point in time. It probably shows that there is probably no sense of urgency to try to put something in the window to change things.”
Liberal momentum has been growing over the last five weeks in a series of polls. The Nanos Party Power Index has the Liberals continuing to increase their lead on the Tories and NDP, and Mr. Trudeau has taken the top spot for preferred leader of the country. The Liberals are also picking up a larger percentage of male voters that used to vote Conservative.
“It looks like the Liberal strategy is they want everybody’s vote and they want everybody to know that they want their vote,” said Mr. Nanos.
Despite this, Liberal MPs insist now is the time to put their heads down and “work hard,” a clear message from Mr. Trudeau.
“If there was one message out of the caucus, it is that we can’t be focused on the polls… It’s our job to work every bit just as hard as I think we do in an election when you think you’re one point behind,” said Ms. Bennett. “There have always been lots of Liberals in Alberta, it’s a matter of us now being able to turn that into some seats here.”
This work will include naming 338 candidates, a task Mr. Goodale says they’re a third of the way through. It’s expected most of the remaining nominations will take place this fall and winter.
The NDP will also be descending upon Edmonton for their annual caucus assembly Sept. 9-10.
“Both opposition parties have the same challenge, to convert good will and potential into hard political advantage where people will feel comfortable having a government other than the Conservatives,” said Mr. Nanos.
raiello@hilltimes.com
The Hill Times