Carlton Chin, a fund manager, and Jay Granat, psychotherapist, are authors of “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological Mathematical Method.” They have previously written about the World Series and the N.C.A.A. men’s basketball tournament, Super Bowl 44 and Super Bowl 45.

Based on research from our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game?”, we studied factors related to sports psychology that might help predict the winner of the Super Bowl. The results are based on every Super Bowl since 1967, or 45 games.

With an eye toward quantitative analysis that attempts to identify factors that are as independent from one another as possible, five key statistical factors were identified. These statistics are related to principles of sports psychology like experience, leadership, error control, confidence and consistency. With the Giants’ surge late in the season and during the playoffs, we also looked at momentum.

Experience: The team with more Super Bowl experience, as measured by Super Bowl appearances over the past three years, has won 58.3 percent of the Super Bowls. Neither team has been to a Super Bowl over the past three years, although the Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl four years ago.

Defense: Research shows that defense is, indeed, a key ingredient to winning a champioship. A large majority of Super Bowls (65.1 percent) has been won by the team that allowed fewer points during the regular season. This year’s Super Bowl participants did not excel in defense during the regular season, but the Patriots and their 15th-ranked defense rate higher than the Giants and their 25th-ranked defense.

Leadership and Minimizing Errors: Quarterbacks, as offensive leaders, are major factors in determining championships, but not necessarily in the way you might expect. Quarterback interceptions during the regular season are great predictors of Super Bowl success, but quarterback rating is not. The team with fewer interceptions during the regular season has won 58.5 percent of the Super Bowls. This factor favors the Patriots and their 12 interceptions, compared to the Giants’ 16 interceptions.

Confidence: The team that has achieved more double-digit wins during the regular season has gone on to win 58.5 percent of Super Bowls. This category favors the Patriots, with eight double-digit wins, compared to four for the Giants. But it could be argued that the Giants gained confidence from their many close, comeback wins this season, including one over the Patriots.

Consistency: Contrary to what some people might think in today’s high-powered offensive game, ball control remains one of the more important offensive indicators studied. The team with a better running game, as measured by average yards per rush, has won 59.1 percent of the Super Bowls. The Patriots averaged 4 yards per rush this season, compared to 3.5 for the Giants.

These championship factors favor New England, but how do we account for the Giants’ momentum? We studied teams that reached the Super Bowl with less impressive regular-season records. Since 1990, when the N.F.L. went to its current playoff format, teams with 11 wins or fewer during the regular season have gone 4-7 in the Super Bowl. This includes Green Bay’s win last year and the Giants’ championship from four years ago; both teams had a 10-6 record during the regular season.

Three years ago, Arizona (9-7) played Pittsburgh in Super Bowl 43, ultimately losing a close game, 27-23. Interestingly, all three of these Super Bowls occurred over the past four years, a sign of parity in the league.

The Patriots (13-3) won four more games than the Giants (9-7) during the regular season. How have teams with a large win differential fared in the Super Bowl? Since 1990, teams with three or more wins than their opponents during the regular season have gone 2-2 in Super Bowls.

This year is only the second time since 1990 that the Super Bowl finalists have a differential of four or more. Fans probably already know that the only other Super Bowl that satisfied this criterion was four years ago, when the 10-6 Giants defeated the 16-0 Patriots.