It’s nuts, but Rudd really can do Coalition heads in

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'He's been mocked, belittled and abused, and to see him come back against impossible odds, is quite heroic.'

'He's been mocked, belittled and abused, and to see him come back against impossible odds, is quite heroic.' Photo: Andrew Meares

It's the fourth quarter in the grand final. Streaking ahead to glory is a bunch of ruthless, disciplined but not greatly likeable bluebloods. They have scored goal after goal by repeatedly hammering the opposition's captain - who is wildly unpopular with the crowd. It's ugly, deadly and the season seems lost to the point of … who gives a fig?

And then, off the bench, comes a hero of the past - the Ruddster!!! - a kind of drongo genius who has rubbed his own team up the wrong way, but, jeez, there's a lot of people in the stands happy to see him.

Suddenly, there's a hint of a Hollywood ending, the underdog pulling off the impossible in that bloodiest of contests, the federal election. We love a miracle, we love guts and glory … this is the vibe, but is it enough?

The answer is ''maybe'', according to sports psychologists and other experts canvassed by Fairfax Media.

Shayne Hanks is director of Performance Boost, and psychologist and executive coach for the Royal Australian Navy Reserve. He characterises the return of Kevin Rudd so late in the day - ''the equivalent of your sub coming on in the last quarter with a lot of energy and an established track record'' - as the kind of distraction that could cause the Coalition to choke.

From a performance psychology perspective two opposite but destructive forces could put the Coalition off its game plan, he says. ''The taste of victory is there, and so they start to think about the consequences of winning. They start to think more about what that looks and feels like: the status and power and prestige, all the things associated with success.''

This alone can affect a player's judgment. Throw in the Rudd factor, and doubt creeps in. ''There's a danger they'll get sidetracked. 'What if we lose from here?' Once they get focused on that possibility, they get increasingly desperate. The dialogue moves away from what is working to thinking, 'What do I have to do to get across the line?' In this case, what was helping the Coalition was Julia Gillard. And she's gone.''

Hanks said there were valuable lessons to be learnt from Andy Murray's coach Brad Gilbert, who wrote a book called Winning Ugly in which he argues that winning is linked to the question ''who is doing what to whom?''

Says Hanks: ''That question is meant to inform you when you are playing: am I reacting to them or are they reacting to me? Kevin Rudd has shifted the balance. He is the one being proactive.

''The Liberals are no longer doing it, they are getting it done to them.''

Dr Mark Symmons is a senior lecturer in the psychological studies program at Monash University. His research interests include the applications of psychology in real-world problems, including sports psychology.

''When a star player comes onto the ground, it's only useful if the whole team rallies. And that's possibly not the case with the Labor Party. Up until three-quarter time, the crowd has seen disunity and not passing properly.''

But Rudd can turn this around, says Dr Symmons, by scoring an early goal. ''This will give the team a reason to believe it's been worthwhile bringing him on. Then, once the crowd sees the team is playing together, they build up a bit of hope for the team. With the crowd behind them, the team rallies further, and you have this cycle where everyone is feeding off everyone else. Suddenly the whole thing is going well.''

But if the first goal takes too long the momentum will be lost, he cautions.

''From a psychological point of view, the opposition could suddenly get disheartened - 'uh oh, we're in trouble.' And that drags on their motivation and momentum. No matter what arena you're in, it's all psychology.''

Sports psychologist Paul Penna agrees: ''One goal at the right time is enough to swing momentum. Plus, you have to keep in mind that Australians like the underdog. We're a bunch of dreamers and believers if given something to latch on to.''

Psychologist Lyn Bender says Rudd is on the classic hero's journey. ''He's been mocked, belittled and abused … and to see him come back against impossible odds, is quite heroic. The timing is excellent because there isn't enough time for it to wear off.''


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Fear and loathing: a journey to the ALP's heart

Tim Soutphommasane: It may well be that a Rudd-led Labor Party will win more seats than one led by Gillard, as polling suggests. Some Labor ministers, such as Foreign Minister Bob Carr, believe the leadership switch ensures this year's election will now be ''contestable'' or ''competitive''.But it would be an error to evaluate the ''Ruddstoration'' by electoral gain alone.


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