Tim Lincecum: Some Reassuring Stats

Thumbnail image for Tim Lincecum New York Times.jpgTim Lincecum has looked better...Wayward Giants Ace Tim Lincecum's every-fifth-day shellackings have become a regular thing. Once a week, with certainty, a cavalcade of amateur psychology, pharmacology, and hand-wringing is released by Giants fans concerned that the trove of No. 55 gear they've invested in may come to be seen as sad symbols of an otherworldly talent that suddenly and inexplicably crashed to earth.

The Giants' "why score three runs when one will do?" offense has always kept Lincecum from enjoying the statistical success of inferior pitchers who play for megateams. He has always been a better pitcher than the numerical trappings of excellence would indicate. Now, however, he's worse. Lincecum is "only" 2-7, but the team has lost 11 of his 13 starts. He's already given up 48 earned runs after surrendering only 66 all last year. He's walking more batters, striking out fewer, and giving up more home runs. It's just ugly, all the way through.

So, here are some reassuring numbers. Other great pitchers have had off -- or even very off -- years. And they came back and were solid again. To wit:


Curt Schilling, 2000: 11-12, 3.81 ERA, 168 strikeouts
Curt Schilling, 2001: 22-6, 2.98 ERA, 293 strikeouts

Doug Drabek, 1993: 9-18, 3.79 ERA
Doug Drabek, 1994: 12-6, 2,84 ERA

Bob Feller, 1952: 9-13, 4.74 ERA, 219 hits in 192 IP
Bob Feller, 1954: 13-3, 3.05 ERA, 127 hits in 140 IP

Tom Seaver, 1974: 11-11, 3.20 ERA
Tom Seaver, 1975: 22-9, 2.38 ERA

Frank Viola, 1989: 13-17, 3.66 ERA
Frank Viola, 1990: 20-12, 2.67 ERA

Livan Hernandez, 2002: 12-16, 4.38 ERA
Livan Hernandez, 2003: 15-10, 3.20 ERA

Don Sutton, 1979: 12-15, 3.82 ERA
Don Sutton, 1980: 13-5, 2.20 ERA

And the list goes on. That said, with most pitchers, it's hard to find a breakdown so divorced from logical factors as Lincecum's is. Yes, he's not getting much run support -- but when did he ever?

So, the end result of all of this: You were nervous. You looked at some statistics. And now you're still nervous. Best of luck to Tim Lincecum. He'll need it.

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