Study Finds Most Published Psychology Research Analysis Papers Suffer …

A landmark study involving 100 scientists from around the world has tried to replicate the findings of 270 recent findings from highly ranked psychology journals and by one measure, only 36 percent turned up the same results. That means that for over half the studies, when scientists used the same methodology, they could not come up with the same results.

“A large portion of replications produced weaker evidence for the original findings despite using materials provided by the original authors, review in advance for methodological fidelity, and high statistical power to detect the original effect sizes,” the team reports in Science today.

The study was organised by having several teams from around the world select an experiment from a 2008 edition of one of three leading psychology journals and then follow the original methodology as closely as they could. They were told to get in contact with the lead authors if possible too, so they could get a better insight into how things were done the first time around.

While 97 of the 100 studies originally reported statistically significant results – which Ed Yong explains at The Atlantic as “if you did the study again, your odds of fluking your way to the same results (or better) would be less than 1 in 20″ – only 36 of these results could be replicated as statistically significant the second time around.

And these papers were taken from the best journals – the hardest ones to get published in. If the studies were taken from all available psychology journals, the results would probably have been even worse.

“The success rate is lower than I would have thought,” Stanford University’s John Ioannidis, author of the widely cited paper, Why Most Published Research Findings are False, told Yong. “I feel bad to see that some of my predictions have been validated. I wish they’d been proven wrong.”

But this doesn’t mean that the results from two-thirds of the highest profile psychological studies from 2008 were incorrect. Even if the results weren’t able to be replicated, it doesn’t take away from the fact that there’s likely something to the original findings, but as with all studies that haven’t been independently verified and replicated, they need to be taken with a grain of salt.

While studies in social psychology, which look at how certain things influence behaviour, are known to be less reproducible than cognitive studies, which look at how the brain functions when it’s storing memories, learning new things etc, this isn’t the only field in science that suffers when put through the replication wringer.

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