Justin Trudeau's popularity says as much about where Canadians are psychologically as it does about the man himself.
Many Canadians are no longer satisfied with a competent leader who won't make a mess, they are looking for a visionary who will give them hope.
Is Trudeau that visionary? It's the only way he can sell himself.
He does not have any major political achievements to cite, other than getting himself elected twice in the riding of Papineau, which was a strong Parti Quebecois riding. It shows he has guts. In Parliament, he does not hold a position of heft -- he's the critic for youth, post-secondary education and amateur sport.
His popularity cannot be explained simply by media attention. Prime Minister Stephen Harper gets a lot of coverage, but his personal popularity has never been his strong point.
But a Canadian Press-Harris Decima survey released last week shows 36% of people asked say they would be certain or likely to vote Liberal if Trudeau is the party's leader. His support is highest in the Maritimes (48%), Quebec (43%) and Ontario (40%). With that kind of support in central Canada, the Liberals would breeze to majority. The survey showed he would even do well in the west.
That level of support is surprising for a man whose most recent contributions to public discourse was to call Environment Minister Peter Kent a "piece of s---" in the House of Commons and to muse in a Radio-Canada interview in French that he might consider separation of Quebec as a legitimate course of action if Harper keeps getting his way. One would think that a quote like, "the separatist option is not the bogeyman it used to be," and contending that the sitting prime minister is worse would end a political career. In fact, Trudeau's feistiness seems to be stimulating his support.
That particular quality probably launched his leadership hopes when, as an underdog, he defeated -- hammered -- Conservative Sen. Patrick Brazeau, who holds a black belt in karate -- in a charity boxing match in March. It was the personification of his persona.
Trudeau has no significant policy initiatives to speak of, so Canadians seem to be embracing his visionary potential, much like that of his father Pierre during the Trudeaumania years.
Last year, writing in Psychology Today, author Art Markman cited a study in Social Psychology Bulletin by Nir Halevy, Yair Berson and Adam Galinsky, explaining why and -- most importantly, when -- voters turn to visionaries.
In times of crisis, it turns out.
That's what generated support for Barack Obama during the recession of 2008. Obama inspired. Voters were done with the man they could share a beer with.
No one is trying to compare Trudeau to Obama -- they had very different challenges -- but it's the psychology of voters that counts here. The study found that in crisis scenarios, those who supported visionaries, rather than simple men-of-the-people, then read the endorsements they prepared actually felt better afterward.
Are we in crisis? The prolonged economic malaise in North America, the worsening European economic situation and the stubbornly high unemployment rate have lasted so long that voters are tired. They may be just looking for hope, rather than just competent leadership.
Trudeau, at 40, is good at hope. He wreaks of it in his demeanour, his confidence, his sexual appeal. His support comes from more than celebrity. Hope shouldn't be underestimated. It can deliver a politician to high office.
What happens after that, as Obama found out, is another matter.
brian.macleod@sunmedia.ca