How to survive the state election

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Election campaigns are about timing. When things look dire, the tendency is for candidates to want to rush announcements, and match rival funding announcements. The strategists faced with the difficult job of keeping a lid on things call this phenomenon "candidatitis".

2. My name is underdog. One of the biggest risks for Labor is that voters start to believe it is a sure bet. Some betting markets have Labor priced at just $1.25, compared to the Coalition's $3.70.

Plenty of people have dismissed the polls, which suggest Labor could be ahead by as much as 56 per cent to 44 per cent in two-party-preferred terms. But results such as this aren't necessarily a good thing for Labor, which has been quietly attempting to hose down its chances. Arrogance is probably one of the least attractive traits in politics.

If people believe Labor is heading for a decisive win, it will face added scrutiny during the campaign. One of the few advantages Napthine now has is that he can claim "underdog" status, raising the prospect that some voters may choose the Coalition merely to even up the contest.

3. We wuz robbed. It is the job of any opposition to convince voters they have been badly short-changed by an uncaring, and incompetent government. "Under Denis Napthine and the Liberals, you're on your own," the Labor ads tell us.

Labor reckons it has plenty of material to work with, highlighting cuts to TAFE funding, underfunding for public schools, rising unemployment and waiting lists in public hospitals. One of Labor's biggest weapons here is Tony Abbott. Labor believes Abbott is political poison in Victoria, and is doing everything possible to remind voters the Prime Minister belongs to the same political party as Napthine.

4. No, but you will be. On the other hand, it is the job of the incumbent to convince voters the state will be ruined if the opposition wins. The Coalition is doing this by highlighting its record delivering the strongest budget position in the nation. The argument here is that it is impossible to deliver services in health, education and infrastructure without strong finances.

The Coalition has also been busy reminding voters of perceived major project disasters, including Labor's desalination plant and the myki ticketing system, claiming Labor can't manage money.

Labor kept the budget in surplus every year and maintained a AAA credit rating when it was last in office. But this hasn't stopped the government from claiming it inherited a financial "mess", arguing that spending was growing at a rate outpacing revenues.

This was partly true towards the end of Labor's time in government, but the figures were distorted because it was spending federal stimulus money following the global financial crisis.

5. Do I know you? Pretending political rivals don't exist and what they say is irrelevant, is a potent form of psychological warfare in politics. Abbott used the tactic successfully before  the 2013 federal election, leaving Labor flummoxed and often dancing to the Coalition's tune.

This time, state Labor has employed the same tactic. It has avoided debate over financial management, an area of natural strength for the Coalition. Instead, it has attempted to drag the Coalition into a fight about health and education, ensuring it is battling on home ground.

The Coalition is attempting to change this, with Napthine claiming the election is about "choice, trust and good decisions".

6. Never work with children or animals. One of the big challenges in election campaigns is to avoid appearing robotic. This means kissing babies, kicking balls, dancing like a lunatic and sculling drinks.

Napthine, for example, spent Melbourne Cup day hamming it up with go-go dancers, a group of teenage mutant ninja turtles who demanded he fix the sewer system and dancing awkwardly to a brass band. Daniel Andrews chose to watch the race at JD's Sports Bar in Ballarat, knocking back Jim Beam and colas.

The wonderful thing, at least for political observers, is that the potential for disaster is always present. Kick a footy badly, make a kid cry, stumble, say something stupid, or get heckled, and the impact can be devastating.

It is an equation involving risk and reward. Politicians have little choice but to engage on this level and pray they make it through without any major mishaps.

7. Cast not the first stone. Both sides of politics have what might be loosely described as "dirt units" hunting for material to smear opponents. It is a grubby and dangerous business with major risks. Labor found out the hard way when it attempted to use a private conversation contained on a stolen dictaphone to cleave divisions in the Liberal Party.

It backfired spectacularly after The Age revealed the recording device was taken and examined by Labor Party officials, despite initial denials by Andrews. The issue could well dog Andrews further during the campaign, particularly if police lay charges for theft.

8. I'm just like you. The biggest challenge for both sides is to convince voters they understand their concerns and share their hopes for the future. It is a difficult task, given the high level of public cynicism.

People expect politicians to make big promises during campaigns. The sad thing is, they no longer expect them to deliver.

Josh Gordon is The Age's state political editor.


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